Yankees Go Home: Two-Tiered NHL?

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If you were to ask Gary Bettman his most cherished accomplishment in his 134 years as NHL commissioner he’d likely tell you the growth of the sport in the U.S., particularly the South. The land of heat, humidity and bad skating.

Yes, Phoenix/ Arizona has been a loser, but the area has still produced top NHL players such as Hart Trophy winner Auston Matthews, Sean Couturier and the Tkachuk brothers. California and Texas are also turning out top talent. According to current data, American players represent 28.4 percent of all players in the league while Canadians— who were once 100 percent of players— now constitute just 43.2 percent of players. (Swedes are 9.7 percent.)

It’s reasonable to assume those figures will narrow further as Americans understand there’s good money in breathing Zamboni fumes. That would seem the best of outcomes for the NHL. But the recent dramatic departures of star players from the Calgary Flames illustrates that, despite the balancing efforts of the NHL Draft, we may be entering a time when, if they get leverage, star Americans simply might choose to play in their native land, forsaking the Great White North.

No longer are they willing to go where ordered, as they once were (see my book 2006 book  Money Players. )Now, a range of issues affect the decision. Punishing Canadian tax laws and border hassles. Language issues in Quebec. Warmer U.S. winter weather for players’ families. Branding opportunities. Post-career business and media contacts. Friends and fans.

The canary in this coal mine was the wrenching decision by UFA Johnny Gaudreau to take a $15 M haircut to leave western Canada for the Excited States. After much stalling the star winger claimed he wanted to go home so his wife could have their baby in the USA. (Ironically Gaudreau’s parents are Quebecois.) Fair enough. 

While he didn’t end up in his preferred venues of Philadelphia or New Jersey, Gaudreau did make it as far as Columbus, Ohio. The optics were terrible for Calgary which pulled out all the financial stops to induce him to stay. What message did it send to other RFAs about the market if stars like Gaudreau will take a huge financial hit just to escape a smaller Canadian market? Or to players  drawing up No Trade clauses? 

Making it even more galling for Calgary fans, their provincial rivals in Edmonton had sewed up their franchise stars, Canadians Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent Hopkins plus German Leon Draisitl, on long-term deals.

Things then got worse when Gaudreau’s linemate and pending UFA Matthew Tkachuk also told the Flames to send him stateside. Calgary GM Brad Treliving turned Tkachuk lemons into lemonade, obtaining three players from Florida, including pending UFA Jonathan Huberdeau who matched Gaudreau’s 115 points in 2021-22. But it was a near-run thing.

The gasping sound you heard as all this was playing out was from Toronto fans, whose franchise star Matthews is heading into his UFA season unsigned. Might California-born Matthews leave millions on the table to return south to America? Toronto has many advantages over, say, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa or Winnipeg. But if the desire to play in the U.S. is strong, how can the Maple Leafs deny Matthews his desire to flee south and escape Trudeaunomics?

Which leads us to the sticky wicket of what should Canadian franchises do about drafting or trading for American players, particularly those with leverage? With the current Canadian government intent on making cross-border travel into a Kafkaesque experience there are many reasons U.S. products can cite for preferring to play outside Canada. 

As an example, seven of the 2022 first-round draft selections were Americans. But just one, Rutger McGroarty (from the U.S. National Team Development Program) went to a Canadian team. (Winnipeg). While the draft order was distorted by Covid cancelling the OHL season, Canadian teams hewed to native Canadians and Europeans with their top choices. 

Predicting Gaudreau-like success at the Draft is problematic. But what about free agency and trades? How many American players have Canadian cities on their no-trade lists? Will the seven Canadian teams be starved of a chance at top U.S. players going forward? It’s not just Winnipeg and Edmonton as cut-outs anymore. Quebec’s new language regimes have put the Habs in the Danger Zone. 

On the flip side, will the success of American prospects lead American owners to order their management to favour U.S. players over Canadians in the draft and trading? Outside the first round, if prospects seem even, who would that chauvinistic owner prefer to sell to his season-ticket holders? Ditto in trades. If it’s a question of similar players why would they not want Americans. 

Of course winning reigns supreme in Club Gary. But with 31 teams disappointed every year owners may look to other means of entertaining the fans. As has been noted in the past no one ever went broke in America waving the flag. Think of the time saved singing only the Star Spangled Banner.  If the percentages of Americans/ Canadian reaches level it could prove very bad news for Canadian NHL teams searching for Mr. Perfect. Or Mr. Tkachuk. 

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster (http://www.notthepublicbroadcaster.com). A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft YearsIn NHL History, , his new book with his son Evan, was voted the eighth best professional hockey book of by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted seventh best, and is available via http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx