Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth.- Mike Tyson

Okay, maybe it’s not exactly funereal, but the sad music is playing for the Toronto Blue Jays 2018 Master Plan. The design that was supposed to make Jays fans forget departing GM Alex Anthopoulos and worship new Jays president Mark Shapiro and his GM Ross Atkins. That was the legacy plan predicated on three hot prospects with famous baseball names— Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio—and a pitching staff of gaudy free-agent signings—José Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Bassett— returning the Jays to their 1990s glory

What did Iron Mike say about plans? The peak of the 2024 season probably occurred last winter where, for a few short days, some Toronto media convinced the fans that Shohei Ohtani was taking Toronto’s money over Dodgers’ green. He didn’t, and with no Plan B, Shapiro started talking about the re-design of the Rogers Centre. Anything but the fact they were in big trouble on the field.

As the 2024 season winds down the Blue Jays now resemble their Baseball America Top 20 prospects roster more than a Shohei powerhouse on par with the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros. Yes, there have been some encouraging glimmers from the farm in this phoney war since the season collapsed months ago. In Spencer Horowitz, Addison Barger, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido and Leo Jimenez there are hints at a more promising future. The no-hit bids by Bowden Francis have been a pleasant surprise.

Just not the Golden Boys + rented-pitching formula advertised for years by president Shapiro and GM Atkins. This formula, much-touted by Jays media, hasn’t worked out for a number of reasons. Briefly, the injury plague that laid low the bullpen this season occurring concurrently with Guerrero and Bichette slumping early was more than manager John Schneider could handle.

An offence that promised fireworks at the plate reminiscent of the 2015-2017 Gun Show has been more like a pop gun. While the starting pitching has stayed relatively healthy it has not dominated in a way that justifies the huge salaries doled out to its component parts. The abject failure of a series of Jays pitching prospects— typified by dumping uber-prospect Nate Pearson recently— has also scuttled the promise of catching the Yankees and Orioles. Will Francis break the schneid?.

Nor does the prospect of heading into 2025 with these components augur well. Before they get to next year there remains the vexing question of signing Guerrero and Bichette to longterm deals before 2026. Vladdy will get the moon and stars after rehabilitating this career midseason, becoming one of the top five hitters in baseball. (He also appears more grounded.) The question remains will he take that money in Toronto or go catch steam with a title contender. Because Toronto is not that team in 2025.

Bichette is the sticking point. In 2023 it looked as though he was the rock to build on. But his production suddenly cratered and injuries robbed him of about 250 at bats this year. There was talk he wanted out, that he was available at the trade deadline, that he’s in funk over family issues. Whatever, he’s not getting Vladdy money now as a free agent. He says he wants to stay, but will someone else pony up the full meal deal for him?

Yes, there’ll be primo free agents available to overpay. Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso would all answer some need in the Blue Jays lineup— at astronomical costs (if they were even interested in playing in Canada). But as a second-tier location Toronto may have to bring back old pal Edwin Encarnacion or Arizona’s Christian Walker to distract from the decline of the team.

Which leaves the real question: will the phone salesmen at Rogers re-up with the Shapiro/ Atkins/ Schneider troika for one more try at pushing the rope the hill? It’s clear that Rogers loves Shapiro’s handling of the reconstruction of the playing surface, even if the work seeks to have turned Rogers Centre from a launching pad to a power neutral/ power negative one for the home team’s offence.

For the Rogers shareholders Shapiro’s Loonie Hot Dogs, Bobblehead nights and Oktoberfest specials are swell. The stands remain populated despite the dreck on the field. But the team they watch has been a painful failed strategy. Perhaps there will be enough feedback from disgruntled season ticket holders to force the hand of the Rogers paymasters. One professional sports insider was recently quoted that the Jays — currently sitting at the bottom of the American League East standings — are “a stranded money-losing team” whose value isn’t fully reflected within the telecom company.

But even if there isn’t, how can you let this front office handle the contract decisions on Guerrero and Bichette when another bad season will seem them gone? Perhaps this hinge point is a good time to reload the C suite with new eyes and something better than doing Western Night or the Westjet Flight Deck. The fans of MLB’s largest home market may seem content with bells and whistles.

But it’s half past tomorrow, and the alarm is ringing.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

It’s Half-Past Tomorrow, And the Blue Jays Alarm Is Ringing