Will A-A-Ron "Pack" It In To Follow Alex Trebek?

Your answer for $2000 is: Aaron Rodgers

And the question is: Which NFL legend’s future is in Jeopardy?

Rim shot. But seriously, the 2021 NFL Draft now wrapping up its 19th Round someplace was overshadowed by news the day before that legendary Packers QB Rodgers doesn’t want to play in Green Bay any longer. If he doesn’t get his way he might just go replace Alex Trebek on Jeopardy.

Somehow Rodgers’ most personal thoughts had crept into the media with the entire NFL world assembled in Cleveland to find a young QB to succeed Rodgers as the face of the league. Trade rumours went wild. How convenient.

It’s brinksmanship of the first order. But then Rodgers knows how to steal a scene. In his highly touted draft year he fell to 24th in the 2005 first round. TV cameras in the green room followed his grim-face descent as millions of dollars flew out the window. Rodgers was finally picked by Green Bay and vowed retribution on everyone who’d passed him over. 

(Quick: Who was the first selection that year? Had to look it up, huh?)

He’s made good on that pledge (no GM who passed on him is currently employed by the same team). Now he’s bringing down holy hell on the Packers for drafting a QB in 2020 to succeed him. Anyone who’s seen this act before suspects Rodgers will get his way in Green Bay. 

What’s most remarkable about Rodgers (after his classic Key & Peele appearances is that, in a league growing younger every season, he and a few other greybeards still rule. 

The NFL’s GOAT Tom Brady still plays in Tampa Bay with teammates half his age. Drew Brees just retired in New Orleans at age 42. Philip Rivers is 39. But it’s the growing exception as teams that used to keep rookies on the bench for several seasons, playing behind veterans, now thrust them into starting roles from Day One. 

It’s the same in the NHL where anyone but a future Hall of Famer is out of the league by the time they hit their 30s. (Unless they play for peanuts.) What do the NFL and NHL share? A hard salary cap. The pressure of staying under a strict budget has changed the way teams build champions.

The way to build in the past was to slowly assemble a veteran team laden with guys who’d paid their dues. Sort of like the grizzled 1967 Stanley Cup winning Toronto Maple Leafs— who won the club’s last Cup 54 years ago— that averaged 47.5 years old. (Okay it felt like it.)  Rookies and young guys played only when the vets needed a rest. It took time to get the right mix. 

In today’s win-now culture, the pressure of managing a salary cap means that you must play your prospects and draftees on entry-level contracts before they get to the big bucks. The accepted wisdom is that only by getting Connor McDavid or Austen Matthews at prices well below their market value can you afford the other pieces that make up a champion team. 

It’s a delicate dance that fails more often than it succeeds. McDavid’s current Oilers team now has him, Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl— no longer on entry contracts— taking up $28 M of the Oilers $85 M cap hit. That leaves 22 other player salaries to squeeze under the cap. And likely leaves RNH a free agent this summer.

Despite McDavid’s status as the game’s best player the Oilers haven’t been able to make the numbers work yet in balancing a few great talents with other intangibles needed for a Cup. He’s played just 17 playoff games since becoming an Oiler in 2015. It’s hard to be a superstar when you disappear by the postseason.

In the NFL the lurch towards youth reliance has become even more drastic. As we heard multiple times during the 2021 Draft telecasts, to win a Super Bowl these days you need either a GOAT QB (Brady, Rodgers, now-retired Brees) or a QB still on his rookie deal. 

The NFL model is Kansas City’s QB Patrick Mahomes, a 2017 pick who has led the Chiefs to two Super Bowl appearances, one SB win, three playoff berths and the NFL’s best regular season record in 2020. With 2018 NFL MVP Mahomes over-performing his contract the Chiefs were able to assemble the other pieces for an NFL champion. Other examples of teams recently employing the same formula to get to the SB are Seattle (Russell Wilson), Jared Goff (LA Rams), Philadelphia (Carson Wentz)  and San Francisco (Jimmy Garoppolo). 

Baltimore (Lamar Jackson), Houston (DeSean Watson), Dallas (Dak Prescott) and Buffalo (Josh Allen) have also made the playoffs using this model. Others are trying to emulate the same route— as we saw in the 2021 Draft with five QBs going in the top 15 picks. 

The downside to this speeded-up process is the quality of play. While the athletes are better and the coaching is (mostly) excellent, the absence of veteran players who can’t— or won’t— play for less than their value means a lot of players being pushed too early past their experience/ talent levels. 

For example, Claude Provost— who won nine Stanley Cups as a defensive forward playing his entire career in Montreal— would never survive in this cap era unless he played for entry level money, moving from team to team. There is an army of players like him today in the NHL/ NFL who are forced out by economics, not skill.

The moral of the story is strike early, pay cheap and hope that the sports Gods are on your side. Or, like Aaron Rodgers, you have a good fallback job. 

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster (http://www.notthepublicbroadcaster.com). The best-selling author of Cap In Hand is also a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster, his new book Personal Account with Tony Comper is now available on http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx